538 Presidential Forecast 2024 Mumbai. — an updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency — 538's election forecast model is a prediction of election data based primarily on economic growth, polarization, the president's approval rating, and other key factors.
— data for fivethirtyeight’s previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 republican primary averages is available for download here. The ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process.